ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that global cereal output in 2026 will reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from last year’s record. Despite this decline, the total is expected to be the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest projection is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the estimate made in July. This annual reduction of 61.1 million tonnes marks the most significant year-on-year decrease since 2018.
Forecasts for global maize production have been revised downward to 1.309 billion tonnes due to weaker crop prospects. Prolonged summer heat and dry conditions impacted yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. However, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, which are projected to yield well-above-average maize outputs in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production have increased to 810.7 million tonnes, up 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Expectations of improved yields led to about 1.5 million-tonne increases for Canada and Morocco. Projections for Russia and Ukraine also saw upward revisions, although dry weather conditions caused forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom to decline. Despite these upward adjustments, global wheat production is still expected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and would rank as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize Declines Contribute to Overall Cereal Outlook Reduction
The 2026/27 season is projected to see world rice production at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This represents a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka and positive figures for Myanmar. These gains helped offset reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to their lowest levels in decades.
The FAO anticipates that global cereal consumption will reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a 0.2% rise from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat use is forecast to decline from the elevated levels of last season. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed requirements continue to be significant, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States playing vital roles.
Reserves Remain Robust Despite Slight Decline
Forecasts indicate that world cereal stocks at the end of 2027 will total 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes below previous estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is predicted to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. Stock increases are expected in Russia and Ukraine for wheat, but inventories of maize and barley have fallen, pulling down the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, reflecting a 1.7 million tonne rise from earlier forecasts. Despite this increase, the total remains below the record established in 2025/26. The uptick is primarily driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina projected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade in 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, while total rice shipments are still 1.9% below the 2025 peak.