BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, transport costs across the European Union are expected to rise by an estimated €53 billion due to higher road fuel prices. This forecast was published by Transport & Environment on September 23, following an analysis covering 28 weeks ending on September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditure during this period with the same timeframe a year prior, adjusting the figures for inflation. Diesel contributed roughly €40 billion to the increased costs. The calculation includes expenses related to diesel and petrol used in road transportation.
T&E estimated that elevated fuel prices have added an average of €270 million per day to EU road transport expenses. Of this, approximately €203 million per day stems from diesel, while petrol accounts for around €67 million. The rise is attributed to tighter refined-fuel supplies amid the Middle East conflict and disruptions at Russian refineries. These supply constraints have widened the gap between crude oil prices and refined products, notably diesel. Diesel and gasoil together make up about 43% of petroleum products consumed in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has also reported considerable volatility in crude oil and refined-fuel markets, especially for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that there is no immediate risk of an oil supply shortage in the EU. The report highlighted that increased EU refinery output and alternative global sources have continued to meet demand. Additionally, oil reserves, both commercial and emergency stocks, remain adequate. Geopolitical uncertainties continue to be a primary driver of significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Impact of Diesel Price Hikes on Drivers and Logistics
For individual drivers, T&E estimated an additional expenditure of around €142 for the average EU diesel car owner during the analyzed period. By September 14, the organization calculated a €30 increase on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an average weekly fuel cost increase of approximately €236. According to the analysis, Europe’s road network includes about 6.2 million trucks. The rise in diesel prices has also impacted freight carriers and other commercial fuel consumers.
Diesel remains a key component of EU road transport and freight activities. According to T&E, in 2024, road transport accounted for 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption. Eurostat data indicate that in that year, gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of the energy used for road transport. Motor gasoline contributed 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels made up 6.2%. Electricity represented just 0.7%, with diesel and gasoline alone providing 90.1% of road transport energy consumption in 2024.
Recent EU Data Highlights Continued Fuel Price Fluctuations
The European Commission issued an update to its Weekly Oil Bulletin on September 24, presenting the latest consumer petroleum prices across EU member states. This bulletin monitors weekly price movements, both including and excluding taxes, and maintains a historical record dating back to 2005. The latest data collection occurred after the T&E study period concluded on September 6. The Commission gathers national price information and provides regular comparative reports across member countries. Its September 8 supply assessment identified diesel and jet fuel among the products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimated figure, based on the environmental group’s analysis rather than an official EU calculation. The estimate measures additional road fuel expenses over the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report also discusses the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transportation, with diesel accounting for most of the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures aimed at reducing diesel demand and promoting vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continue to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption throughout the bloc.